My candidate for the
world’s greatest oxymoron is the "sales forecast." I have spent just a
little more than half of my career working for companies where I had
some association with the sales force. Every year, quarter, and month
the sales staff was asked to give their sales forecasts. With only a
rare exception every one of the sales persons I knew forecast whatever
they believed would be enough for them to keep their jobs. The rare
exceptions were either fired or convinced by their management to change
their forecast.
Now I know that just because it is called
a sales forecast does not mean that is what they really mean. Perhaps
they really mean sales commitment. Of course, in some places the sales
staff was asked for both a forecast and a commitment. Every senior
manager I have asked about this seems to clearly understand what the
sales staff is doing. Many corporate executives came up through sales,
so they really do know. I have seen these forecasts promoted outside
the sales organization as a corporate forecast. I will discuss one
example (The Imaging Market Skyrocket: A Dud) where corporate
management did not know that it was their own sales force forecast that
they purchasing from an outside consulting firm. Why do they do it?
Perhaps when someone does not have any better idea they take an opinion
poll and go with the majority. The trouble is they seem to forget that
it is not really a forecast and plan as if the opinion poll was reality.
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