Optimal Leadership  by Wayne M. Angel, Ph.D.
The Causes of Organization Failure / Faulty Beliefs / Examples: Sales Forecast

















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The Quest - A Preface

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Optimal Leadership
  The Optimal Organization
  Causes of Organization Failure
    Introduction
    Complexity
    Power Disparity and Wants Frustration
    Faulty Beliefs
      Who Decides?
      Examples
        No Duplicate Records
        Sales Forecast
        Performance Measures
        People Resist Change
        The Imaging Market Skyrocket: A Dud
        The Happy Workplace: A Wild Goose?
        Y2K: A Very Bad Joke
        The Methodology Emperor Has No Clothes
      Should You Correct a Faulty Belief?
    Playing the Odds
    The Malaise of Mediocrity
    The Alpha Passion
    Other Possibilities
  Creating the Optimal Organization
  The Optimal Change Agent


The Theory of Society

Organization Simulations

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Utopian Dreams

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My candidate for the world’s greatest oxymoron is the "sales forecast." I have spent just a little more than half of my career working for companies where I had some association with the sales force.  Every year, quarter, and month the sales staff was asked to give their sales forecasts.  With only a rare exception every one of the sales persons I knew forecast whatever they believed would be enough for them to keep their jobs.  The rare exceptions were either fired or convinced by their management to change their forecast. 

Now I know that just because it is called a sales forecast does not mean that is what they really mean.  Perhaps they really mean sales commitment.  Of course, in some places the sales staff was asked for both a forecast and a commitment.  Every senior manager I have asked about this seems to clearly understand what the sales staff is doing.  Many corporate executives came up through sales, so they really do know.  I have seen these forecasts promoted outside the sales organization as a corporate forecast.  I will discuss one example (The Imaging Market Skyrocket: A Dud) where corporate management did not know that it was their own sales force forecast that they purchasing from an outside consulting firm.  Why do they do it? Perhaps when someone does not have any better idea they take an opinion poll and go with the majority.  The trouble is they seem to forget that it is not really a forecast and plan as if the opinion poll was reality.

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