Optimal Leadership  by Wayne M. Angel, Ph.D.
The Optimal Change Agent: Forecast Accuracy























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The Quest - A Preface

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Optimal Leadership
  The Optimal Organization
  Causes of Organization Failure
  Creating the Optimal Organization
  The Optimal Change Agent

 
  Be Forewarned
    The Change Agent Challenge
    The Trim Tab Factor
    Passion
    Uncompromising Intellectual Honesty
    Chunking 7±2
    Master How to Learn
    The Problem with Language
    Why People Resist Change
    Understand Every Thing
    Problem Solving Ability
    Forecast Accuracy
    Tell a Story
    Trim Tab Jam

The Theory of Society

Organization Simulations

SignPost Technologies
                    & Services


Utopian Dreams

The Android Project

 
Discussion Forum
About the Author
Contact Me

It is not enough to forecast what might happen.  It is critically essential that you be able to quantify the accuracy of your forecast.  This takes a sophisticated mathematically based theory of organization and human behavior.  I will present such a theory in the next Section.  I know of no other way to develop the ability to forecast and determine the accuracy of your forecasts.  The mathematics is unavoidable. 

If you do not have the mathematical background then you will need to develop it or rely on others to do the forecasting.  It is quite possible to engage in the development of a model, simulation, and forecast even without the mathematics experience.  Building the models and simulations, I describe in the last Section, require not only the theory and the mathematics ability they also require extensive domain knowledge of the specific subject area.  For the larger models the domain knowledge must be supplied by many individuals.  The ability to coordinate and translate the large quantity of domain knowledge for use in a model does not require a mathematics background. 

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