Forecast Project Outcome

The Theory of Society by Wayne M. Angel, Ph.D.

Introduction / Intent / Real World Sample Problems: Forecast Project Outcome

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The Quest - A Preface

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Optimal Leadership

The Theory of Society
Introduction
    Intent
      Primary Objectives
      Mathematical & Simulation Expectation
      Real World Sample Problems
        Optimal Goal Achievement
        Forecast Project Outcome
        Analyze State-of-Fear Society
        Optimal Organization Structures
        Why Do Some Grow & Some Fail?
        Effort Required to Change
        The Changing Nature of Society
    Theory Overview
    Contents Description
Evolutionary Society
Relation Dynamics
Relation Thermodynamics
Memetics
Wants
Mimetics
Decision Making
All the Rest of Psychology
Operations Model
Theory Verification
Forecasting

Organization Simulations

SignPost Technologies
                    & Services

Utopian Dreams

The Android Project

Discussion Forum
About the Author
Contact Me

If the theory is valid it should be possible to apply it to specific projects to forecast outcome. Projects should include everything from landscaping your front yard, to developing a software application, to sending an exploratory craft tom the surface of Mars, or to going to war.

This is not to imply a crystal ball forecast of what will be. It is a probabilistic forecast that would include sensitivity to situation measures. Any forecast is based on a set of assumptions. To be useful a forecast must identify the level of accuracy given a stated set of believed conditions and then also how sensitive the outcome is to our correct understanding of the stated situation measures.