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There are two sides to reality; that which
is, and that which we believe. The two are not the same. A slight
extension of Gödel's indeterminacy principle says that if by chance that
which "we happen to believe" and that which "truly is" are the same, we
cannot prove it. This is particularly difficult for the "True Believer"
to recognize. (See "The True Believer", Erik Hoffer.) This uncertainty
about our understanding of reality is a well recognized condition in
science. It is ultimately the reason why science is largely structured
toward disproving hypotheses. Of
course, that which "we believe" is a part of that which "truly is." When
forecasting the outcome in a complex human system we must take into
account that which "is believed."
A practical approach is to think of our
beliefs as a mimetically evolving system. I will discuss mimetics and
memetics at length in the theoretical section. For the moment it is
enough to understand the term “meme” as meaning ideas, fads, beliefs,
knowledge, etc. Those memes that improve our desired outcomes tend to
survive and propagate and those that do not tend to die out. Some memes
tells us what to want. Those memes that successfully tell us what to
want and then fulfill that want can, if well crafted, propagate much
like a virus. (See "Gödel, Escher, and Bach," by Douglas Hoffstadter
for examples.) The future of a complex human system is determined by
that which "truly is" and the state of the memetic and mimetic systems.
It is a perfectly natural tendency to
believe we know the faulty beliefs of another and to want to correct
them. It is far more practical to address our own. Even so there are
times when another's beliefs do affect our wants and goals, and it may
be necessary to attempt to change that belief.
Whether we are trying to detect our own
faulty beliefs or believe that we must correct the faulty beliefs of
others, we need a means to judge if a belief is faulty. The obvious
answer is, of course, to test the belief by using it to predict a
specific future outcome. Sometimes a faulty belief comes packaged in a
complex of memes which has a built in strategy to set the believer up to
ignore logical argument against the belief. These are very difficult to
over come and can be a very serious cause of organization failure.
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(C) 2005-2014 Wayne M. Angel.
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