My computer experiences have made me aware that people often
have but a foggy idea of what they are saying. Through translating
thoughts into computer programs, I have learned many fog clearing
techniques. These techniques would have been impossible without the
knowledge gained from computing, which is why so few of them are
understood by older scientists ‑ and systems theorists.
‑ Gerald Weinberg [1975, xii]
If you
do not have the programming experience you will likely find the above
quote somewhat foggy. If you do not write code I have an alternative
for you. Learn to translate your understanding of human and
organization behavior into the language of the simulation models
discussed in Chapter 9: Forecasting, Modeling, and Simulations and the
examples of such models as presented in Section 3. (Incidentally,
writing computer programs is easier.) I guarantee you will discover that
there is much fog in your understanding of how the human world works. I
am still working on my own fog clearing.
We have chosen to develop a mathematical theory [re. cultural
transmission and evolution], and we are well aware of the serious
disadvantages that result from this decision. The necessary
oversimplification is usually so great, especially in applications to
human behavior, that there is often a danger of distortion. Our
position, however, is that a mathematical theory is always more precise
than a verbal one, in that it must spell out precisely the variables and
parameters involved, and the relations between them. Theories couched
in nonmathematical language may confound interactions and gloss over
subtle differences in meaning. They avoid the charge of
oversimplification at the expense of ambiguity.
Cavalli-Sforza and Feldman
[1981, v-vi]
I
do not agree that mathematical theories necessarily result in over
simplification. When taking the first steps into a mathematical theory
it will be as Thomas Edison once quipped to a woman who questioned the
value of one of his inventions, “Madam, of what good is a newborn baby?”
But wherever the mathematical route has been taken and given the
opportunity to mature the value is undeniable.
If you reason only
with language you will err. Language is ambiguous and always fuzzy in
interpretation. It must be or it would not serve its primary purpose.
The primary purpose of language is not to reason. I will discuss the
purpose of language in the Chapter, “A Theory of Human Behavior.”
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