In population
dynamics we often see periodic behavior. So far, even if we add meme
death to each of the growth equations we do not get periodic behavior.
Oscillatory behavior occurs when there is a feedback with delay. In
population dynamics the most discussed example is the prey-predator
model. This is often described with rabbits and foxes. If the rabbit
population is large and the fox population small, the foxes reproduce at
a high rate until they reduce the rabbit population to a level below the
level that will maintain the fox population. This can happen only
because the little foxes consume few rabbits until they grow to
adulthood, thus the effect on the rabbit population has a delay
associated with the maturation rate of the foxes.
We do observe oscillatory behavior in
organizations, but I can think of no clear example where it is caused
directly by meme population dynamics. It seems always to be associated
with a re-evaluation of the value (the
parameter)
of a meme. Examples are such things as “How should we structure our
schools?”, “How should we structure healthcare?”, “What is the correct
level of disaster preparedness?”, “How much should we invest in quality
control or system improvement?, or “How should we structure the sales
force?” This last one is a simple example.
Should a sales force
be organized by client industry or by geographic regions? Technology
companies that sell to multiple industries face the trade off between
efficiency of a sales representative covering a small geographic
territory versus improved client relations by specializing in a single
industry but with a corresponding larger territory. I have seen
companies oscillate between these two. A typical scenario is to start
with the efficiency of the small geographic territory, only to find they
are losing sales to a competitor whose sales representative specializes
in a particular industry and establishes a better relation with and a
better solution for prospects. The company then restructures. Since it
takes time to change the sales force and or train them, there is a time
delay before management can credit new sales to the new industry
alignment. After an initial improvement management begins to see that
profits are adversely affected by the increased cost of sales
representatives spending more time traveling and less time selling. The
company is restructured to gain the efficiency of small territories. I
have seen companies that oscillate between these and some that
understand the trade off and develop a mixed strategy quickly.
But all such cyclic
behavior is caused by factors other than meme population dynamics.
Therefore I shall conclude that meme population dynamics do not lead to
cyclic behaviors. Thus both the mathematical description and the
organization reality appear to be in agreement on this point.
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(C) 2005-2014 Wayne M. Angel.
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