The two tools that must be developed in order to take advantage of the ability to forecast are 1) your mind and 2) formal analytic modeling often supported with computer based simulation. 

Later, I describe organization simulation and modeling along with the underlying theory in great detail.  The benefits of simulation should be obvious.  It is common practice in science and technology.  But a simulation is only an aid for the most important tool in foresight: your mind.  There are 2 reasons why your mind is more important.

1) Whether simulating an aircraft or an organization, the simulation is not the real thing.  Every simulation result must be interpreted in light of what is not in the simulation.  Your mind must judge the consequence of what has been left out. 

2) It is not possible that every decision you make can be preceded with a simulation of alternatives. 

Simulation provides 4 valuable services in developing your mind for foresight.

1) The very act of creating or defining a simulation forces one to be very explicit.  Details and assumptions we have ignored surface and get examined.  The result is often a changed mind. 

2) A simulation like a flight simulator can be a training tool.  Pilots practice.  Why not managers?  In either case the cost of a mistake in the real world can be very high.  Practice reduces mistakes.

3) A simulation is an engineer's tool for designing.  It can be used as an aid in the design of organizations. 

4) A computer based simulation follows our instructions explicitly.  If we believe the outcome incorrect, then either we are wrong about the outcome or we are wrong about the scheme of things as described in our instructions to the computer.  In either case it is good to correct the error, i.e.  to correct faulty beliefs. 

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(C) 2005-2014 Wayne M. Angel.  All rights reserved.